- Winner
- 52.6%
- Podium
- 84.2%
- Top 10
- 98.2%
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Circuit of the Americas · Published results and archived weekend data.
Published winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli · Jolpica published classification
| Finish | Driver | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Finished |
| P2 | Charles Leclerc | Finished |
| P3 | Max Verstappen | Finished |
| P4 | Lewis Hamilton | Finished |
| P5 | Lando Norris | Finished |
| P6 | Isack Hadjar | Finished |
| P7 | Oscar Piastri | Finished |
| P8 | George Russell | Finished |
| P9 | Liam Lawson | Finished |
| P10 | Pierre Gasly | Finished |
| P11 | Nico Hülkenberg | Finished |
| P12 | Arvid Lindblad | Lapped |
| P13 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Lapped |
| P14 | Esteban Ocon | Lapped |
| P15 | Lance Stroll | Lapped |
| P16 | Fernando Alonso | Lapped |
| P17 | Alexander Albon | Lapped |
| P18 | Carlos Sainz | Lapped |
| P19 | Sergio Pérez | Lapped |
| P20 | Valtteri Bottas | Retired |
| P21 | Franco Colapinto | Retired |
| P22 | Oliver Bearman | Retired |
PER: FIA table number 111, timing metadata number 11; timing number retained, identity matched by code and name.
OpenF1 fallback inputs; see the source-shift audit on Performance.
Wind 15.8 km/h · Valid 25 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Captured 25 Oct 2026, 17:46 UTC · Open-Meteo. Weather is not a model input.
Weather candidate did not pass the validation improvement gate for this stage. View validation →
26.3°C · 0.00 mm forecast precipitation · 15.0 km/h windHumidity 42% · JMA GSM · fixed 72-hour lead · valid 25 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
Retrieved 25 Oct 2026, 07:16 UTC. This older fixed-lead forecast matches the training data; the separate race-hour weather card shows the latest context.
Forecast rainfall is a deterministic hourly amount, not a rain probability. Prior nonfinish history includes accidents/exclusions; it is not a mechanical failure probability. Safety cars, incidents and future tyre strategies are not known inputs.
Weather interactions, earlier driver/team nonfinish rates and earlier circuit nonfinish history are trained together. Unknown result statuses are excluded; lapped finishers count as finishers. Missing source data retains the existing model. Historical forecast release times are conservatively estimated; live retrieval is timestamped.
| Driver / team | Quali. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | P1 | 52.6% | 84.2% | 98.2% |
| 2Max VerstappenRed Bull | P2 | 31.3% | 86.5% | 98.3% |
| 3Lewis HamiltonFerrari | P5 | 4.1% | 33.7% | 93.3% |
| 4Isack HadjarRed Bull | P3 | 3.1% | 33.5% | 86.7% |
| 5George RussellMercedes | P6 | 2.7% | 22.8% | 85.7% |
| 6Charles LeclercFerrari | P4 | 2.7% | 20.4% | 84.2% |
| 7Oscar PiastriMcLaren | P7 | 0.5% | 5.3% | 71.0% |
| 8Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | P10 | 0.5% | 2.1% | 43.2% |
| 9Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | P9 | 0.4% | 2.8% | 49.8% |
| 10Lando NorrisMcLaren | P8 | 0.4% | 4.8% | 73.6% |
| 11Gabriel BortoletoAudi | P13 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 30.6% |
| 12Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | P11 | 0.2% | 0.8% | 50.4% |
| 13Nico HülkenbergAudi | P12 | 0.2% | 0.5% | 26.0% |
| 14Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | P14 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 29.1% |
| 15Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | P16 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 5.8% |
| 16Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | P22 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.3% |
| 17Lance StrollAston Martin | P18 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 12.5% |
| 18Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | P21 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 9.7% |
| 19Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | P15 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 30.5% |
| 20Esteban OconHaas F1 Team | P17 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 5.8% |
| 21Carlos SainzWilliams | P19 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 6.0% |
| 22Alexander AlbonWilliams | P20 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 6.3% |
Saved published-source data. Snapshot cutoff: 25 Oct 2026, 17:47 UTC. Model: qual-v2-1cf9fc78-20261024T150228.
catboost qualifying/history model
Grid column shows qualifying position; later penalties may change the starting grid.
Field: qualifying participants
Podium / top-10 model: outcomes-v1-20261024T150240-Q
After FP3 → after Q · percentage-point changes for drivers present in both snapshots.
The stage models differ; this change reflects both new data and a different model. Missing or newly entered drivers receive no invented previous probability.
Only saved snapshots are plotted. Values between points are not forecasts.
| Evidence / estimate | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Max Verstappen |
|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 52.6% | 31.3% |
| Podium probability | 84.2% | 86.5% |
| Top-10 probability | 98.2% | 98.3% |
| Recent average finish | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Recent finishes | P1 · P1 · P5 · P2 · P3 | P3 · P2 · P2 · P1 · P1 |
| Qualifying gap (same phase) | Q3 +0.000s | Q3 +0.179s |
| Teammate qualifying gap | Q3 -0.441s | Q3 -0.036s |
| Practice best / median | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Filtered practice laps | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Earlier nonfinish rate (smoothed) | 6.7% · 10 starts | 20.0% · 10 starts |
| Earlier team nonfinish rate | 13.3% | 6.7% |
| Long run vs teammate | No compound-matched sample | No compound-matched sample |
Observations were frozen with this forecast. Recent finishes are oldest → newest. Teammate gaps are driver minus teammate; negative is faster. Nonfinish rates include accidents/exclusions and use a smoothed prior; they are not predicted mechanical-failure probabilities. Observed comparisons are separate from model-derived associations.
Raw-score associations before calibration and race constraints. Positive terms raise the raw score; they are not percentage-point changes or causal effects.
Raw-score associations before calibration and race constraints. Positive terms raise the raw score; they are not percentage-point changes or causal effects.
| Saved pick | Probability | Actual finish | Outcome achieved? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 52.6% | P1 | Yes |
Actual winner: Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
| Driver | Probability | Finish | Achieved? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 52.6% | P1 | Yes |
| Max Verstappen | 31.3% | P3 | No |
| Lewis Hamilton | 4.1% | P4 | No |
| Isack Hadjar | 3.1% | P6 | No |
| George Russell | 2.7% | P8 | No |
| Charles Leclerc | 2.7% | P2 | No |
| Oscar Piastri | 0.5% | P7 | No |
| Liam Lawson | 0.5% | P9 | No |
| Arvid Lindblad | 0.4% | P12 | No |
| Lando Norris | 0.4% | P5 | No |
| Gabriel Bortoleto | 0.3% | P13 | No |
| Pierre Gasly | 0.2% | P10 | No |
| Nico Hülkenberg | 0.2% | P11 | No |
| Franco Colapinto | 0.2% | P21 | No |
| Oliver Bearman | 0.1% | P22 | No |
| Valtteri Bottas | 0.1% | P20 | No |
| Lance Stroll | 0.1% | P15 | No |
| Sergio Pérez | 0.1% | P19 | No |
| Fernando Alonso | 0.1% | P16 | No |
| Esteban Ocon | 0.1% | P14 | No |
| Carlos Sainz | 0.1% | P18 | No |
| Alexander Albon | 0.0% | P17 | No |
Latest real pre-race snapshot per stage. Earlier revisions remain in forecast history. Full-field matches only. Classified top 3 / top 10, including classified non-finishers.