- Winner
- 48.3%
- Podium
- 87.5%
- Top 10
- 98.8%
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Autódromo José Carlos Pace · Published results and archived weekend data.
Published winner: Lando Norris · Jolpica published classification
| Finish | Driver | Status |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | Lando Norris | Finished |
| P2 | Max Verstappen | Finished |
| P3 | Isack Hadjar | Finished |
| P4 | George Russell | Finished |
| P5 | Andrea Kimi Antonelli | Finished |
| P6 | Oscar Piastri | Finished |
| P7 | Liam Lawson | Finished |
| P8 | Charles Leclerc | Finished |
| P9 | Lewis Hamilton | Lapped |
| P10 | Nico Hülkenberg | Lapped |
| P11 | Arvid Lindblad | Lapped |
| P12 | Fernando Alonso | Lapped |
| P13 | Franco Colapinto | Lapped |
| P14 | Pierre Gasly | Lapped |
| P15 | Alexander Albon | Lapped |
| P16 | Gabriel Bortoleto | Lapped |
| P17 | Oliver Bearman | Lapped |
| P18 | Sergio Pérez | Lapped |
| P19 | Carlos Sainz | Lapped |
| P20 | Rafael Camara | Lapped |
| P21 | Lance Stroll | Retired |
| P22 | Valtteri Bottas | Did not start |
91% of entered drivers have timing · 2 missing
1 additional practice participants are outside the forecast field.
OpenF1 fallback inputs; see the source-shift audit on Performance.
Later observations are not substituted into an earlier forecast.
Weather candidate did not pass the validation improvement gate for this stage. View validation →
17.6°C · 0.20 mm forecast precipitation · 20.5 km/h windHumidity 85% · JMA GSM · fixed 72-hour lead · valid 08 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC
Retrieved 08 Nov 2026, 14:44 UTC. This older fixed-lead forecast matches the training data; the separate race-hour weather card shows the latest context.
Forecast rainfall is a deterministic hourly amount, not a rain probability. Prior nonfinish history includes accidents/exclusions; it is not a mechanical failure probability. Safety cars, incidents and future tyre strategies are not known inputs.
Weather interactions, earlier driver/team nonfinish rates and earlier circuit nonfinish history are trained together. Unknown result statuses are excluded; lapped finishers count as finishers. Missing source data retains the existing model. Historical forecast release times are conservatively estimated; live retrieval is timestamped.
| Driver / team | Quali. | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Max VerstappenRed Bull | — | 48.3% | 87.5% | 98.8% |
| 2Andrea Kimi AntonelliMercedes | — | 13.4% | 35.0% | 90.2% |
| 3Isack HadjarRed Bull | — | 6.8% | 14.9% | 68.9% |
| 4George RussellMercedes | — | 6.2% | 36.8% | 94.4% |
| 5Lewis HamiltonFerrari | — | 5.4% | 66.3% | 96.8% |
| 6Ryo HirakawaHaas F1 Team | — | 4.0% | 4.0% | 9.1% |
| 7Charles LeclercFerrari | — | 2.9% | 18.3% | 74.7% |
| 8Nico HülkenbergAudi | — | 2.6% | 2.9% | 21.5% |
| 9Lando NorrisMcLaren | — | 1.5% | 16.5% | 81.0% |
| 10Gabriel BortoletoAudi | — | 1.2% | 1.6% | 41.8% |
| 11Oscar PiastriMcLaren | — | 1.1% | 4.7% | 50.2% |
| 12Arvid LindbladRB F1 Team | — | 0.9% | 2.0% | 46.7% |
| 13Sergio PérezCadillac F1 Team | — | 0.8% | 1.0% | 15.2% |
| 14Franco ColapintoAlpine F1 Team | — | 0.8% | 1.3% | 24.8% |
| 15Liam LawsonRB F1 Team | — | 0.7% | 2.1% | 41.2% |
| 16Pierre GaslyAlpine F1 Team | — | 0.6% | 1.0% | 29.6% |
| 17Oliver BearmanHaas F1 Team | — | 0.6% | 0.7% | 13.5% |
| 18Carlos SainzWilliams | — | 0.5% | 0.9% | 14.8% |
| 19Valtteri BottasCadillac F1 Team | — | 0.5% | 0.7% | 12.9% |
| 20Fernando AlonsoAston Martin | — | 0.4% | 1.0% | 39.1% |
| 21Lance StrollAston Martin | — | 0.4% | 0.5% | 19.2% |
| 22Alexander AlbonWilliams | — | 0.3% | 0.4% | 15.8% |
Saved published-source data. Snapshot cutoff: 08 Nov 2026, 14:45 UTC. Model: practice-fp2-v1-dd05a7e5-20261019T130112.
catboost FP2 / earlier-history model
Experimental practice-stage backtest. Historical publication cutoffs estimated; retrospective confirmed rosters. 2025 is a development benchmark previously inspected for qualifying. Long-run proxy is not fuel-adjusted. Uses OpenF1 filtered-lap fallback; calibration under this source switch is unverified.
Field: provisional latest-race field
Podium / top-10 model: outcomes-v1-20261024T150240-FP2
This is the first recorded stage. Changes appear when a later stage has a saved forecast.
Only saved snapshots are plotted. Values between points are not forecasts.
| Evidence / estimate | Max Verstappen | Andrea Kimi Antonelli |
|---|---|---|
| Win probability | 48.3% | 13.4% |
| Podium probability | 87.5% | 35.0% |
| Top-10 probability | 98.8% | 90.2% |
| Recent average finish | 1.6 | 2.8 |
| Recent finishes | P2 · P1 · P1 · P3 · P1 | P5 · P2 · P3 · P1 · P3 |
| Qualifying gap (same phase) | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Teammate qualifying gap | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Practice best / median | 1:11.022 / 1:14.912 | 1:10.763 / 1:15.052 |
| Filtered practice laps | 9 | 10 |
| Earlier nonfinish rate (smoothed) | Unavailable | Unavailable |
| Earlier team nonfinish rate | — | — |
| Long run vs teammate | No compound-matched sample | No compound-matched sample |
Observations were frozen with this forecast. Recent finishes are oldest → newest. Teammate gaps are driver minus teammate; negative is faster. Nonfinish rates include accidents/exclusions and use a smoothed prior; they are not predicted mechanical-failure probabilities. Observed comparisons are separate from model-derived associations.
Raw-score associations before calibration and race constraints. Positive terms raise the raw score; they are not percentage-point changes or causal effects.
Raw-score associations before calibration and race constraints. Positive terms raise the raw score; they are not percentage-point changes or causal effects.
No original pre-race forecast was recorded for this race. The classification is available, and no retrospective prediction has been invented.
Latest real pre-race snapshot per stage. Earlier revisions remain in forecast history. Full-field matches only. Classified top 3 / top 10, including classified non-finishers.